The Nobels kicked off today with the prize in medicine, and the Swedish Academy has revealed that the literature award will be announced this Thursday. The cheerily named NicerOdds (owned by one Håkan Klingén, whose first diacritic suggests an inner track to the Academy) has aggregated odds from the various books, useful for tracking both usual suspects and outliers. Over at The Literary Saloon at the Complete Review, Michael Orthofer confirms our sense that the discussion has been unusually muted this year. Whether that's cause or effect, the leader board is essentially unchanged from 2014: Svetlana Alexievich looks to be the unanimous frontrunner, leapfrogging over last year's top guesses Haruki Murakami (as Time sniffed last year: “The bettors always bet on Murakami, and they always lose”) and Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o. There's still plenty of time to place your wager here. Check back Thursday to win, place, show, or shake your head.